Capital Decisions covers the commercial work that surrounds a transaction. Bid framing, deal economics, board-package authoring, independent project review. Once Opportunity Evaluation has ranked an opportunity, this is the service that moves it through approval and close.
Every model serves a decision. We start by defining the decision: what is being asked, what would change the answer, and what the board needs to see. The framing determines what the model has to prove, so the framing comes first.
DCF, NPV, IRR, lifecycle cost. We build economic models around the control variables that move the answer. Monte Carlo, decision trees, and real options analysis where the math is honest. The sensitivity analysis runs until the answer changes.
Ranking competing projects against a consistent economic framework. Surfacing trade-offs the budget process tends to bury. The methodology stays defensible across cycles, so this year's allocation can be defended next year too.
Term sheets, capital stacks, commercial agreements, and partner alignment. Cost-of-service, capacity reservation, and equity participation structures, sized to what the project's economics can carry. We work sponsor-side through financial close, on the structuring side of the table.
Sanity-checking sponsor or operator economics before sanction. Identifying gaps in the decision case that internal teams have reasons to overlook. Engineering judgment paired with the model, because the math runs only as far as the assumptions.
We define the decision before building the analysis. The call, the variables that would change it, and the risk the board needs to see. Framing comes ahead of modeling.
Build or rebuild the model around the real value drivers. Run sensitivity until the answer changes. Known and unknown quantities get treated separately, which is how the residual risk gets named honestly.
Translate the sanctioned case into the commercial structure that funds and aligns the project. Term sheet through close, including the commitments that go with it.
Valuation lead on a multi-billion hostile acquisition in Canadian energy. Scenario-based valuation cases. Investment bank assumptions on fiscal, royalty, and tariff impacts were challenged with independent commercial intelligence. Recommended valuation ranges and negotiation posture were revised on that basis.
Lead economist on a multi-billion midstream divestment to an Indigenous-led purchaser. Built the seller's valuation case. Provided supporting commercial and financing analysis to the purchaser as part of the transaction structure. A deal whose economics had to hold up on both sides of the table.
When oil prices collapsed during COVID-19, decentralized capital decisions led to cuts in the wrong assets. A portfolio-wide reassessment realigned a $5B/year capital program around profitability-based priorities and built a durable methodology for future allocation decisions.
Custom probabilistic valuation and risk tooling, built around Excel economics layered with Monte Carlo simulation, supporting a board's sanction decision on a multi-billion oil sands project. Where prior tooling gave point estimates, the new framework produced risk-adjusted ranges. The board reviewed the decision under uncertainty as well as under base case.
Our flagship engagement evaluates your project pipeline, capital allocation process, and decision governance, and delivers a board-ready roadmap for improvement.
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